Effects of meteorological factors on epidemic malaria in Ethiopia: a statistical modelling approach based on theoretical reasoning.

This study was conducted to quantify the association between meteorological variables and incidence of Plasmodium falciparum in areas with unstable malaria transmission in Ethiopia. We used morbidity data pertaining to microscopically confirmed cases reported from 35 sites throughout Ethiopia over a period of approximately 6-7 years. A model was developed reflecting biological relationships between meteorological and morbidity variables. A model that included rainfall 2 and 3 months earlier, mean minimum temperature of the previous month and P. falciparum case incidence during the previous month was fitted to morbidity data from the various areas. The model produced similar percentages of over-estimation (19.7% of predictions exceeded twice the observed values) and under-estimation (18.6%, were less than half the observed values). Inclusion of maximum temperature did not improve the model. The model performed better in areas with relatively high or low incidence (>85% of the total variance explained) than those with moderate incidence (55-85% of the total variance explained). The study indicated that a dynamic immunity mechanism is needed in a prediction model. The potential usefulness and drawbacks of the modelling approach in studying the weather-malaria relationship are discussed, including a need for mechanisms that can adequately handle temporal variations in immunity to malaria

Modelling the public health impact of male circumcision for HIV prevention in high prevalence areas in Africa

Background: Recent clinical trials in Africa, in combination with several observational epidemiological studies, have provided evidence that male circumcision can reduce HIV female-to-male transmission risk by 60% or more. However, the public health impact of large-scale male circumcision programs for HIV prevention is unclear. Methods: Two mathematical models were examined to explore this issue: a random mixing model and a compartmental model that distinguishes risk groups associated with sex work. In the compartmental model, two scenarios were developed, one calculating HIV transmission and prevalence in a context similar to the country of Botswana, and one similar to Nyanza Province, in western Kenya. Results: In both models, male circumcision programs resulted in large and sustained declines in HIV prevalence over time among both men and women. Men benefited somewhat more than women, but prevalence among women was also reduced substantially. With 80% male circumcision uptake, the reductions in prevalence ranged from 45% to 67% in the two "countries", and with 50% uptake, from 25% to 41%. It would take over a decade for the intervention to reach its full effect. Conclusion: Large-scale uptake of male circumcision services in African countries with high HIV prevalence, and where male circumcision is not now routinely practised, could lead to substantial reductions in HIV transmission and prevalence over time among both men and women

Variability in prescription drug expenditures explained by adjusted clinical groups (ACG) case-mix: A cross-sectional study of patient electronic records in primary care

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In view of rapidly increasing prescription costs, case-mix adjustment should be considered for effective control of costs. We have estimated the variability in pharmacy costs explained by ACG in centers using patient electronic records, profiled centers and physicians and analyzed the correlation between cost and quality of prescription.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed 65,630 patient records attending five primary care centers in Spain during 2005. Variables explored were age, gender, registered diagnosed episodes of care during 2005, total cost of prescriptions, physician and center. One ACG was assigned to each patient with ACG case-mix software version 7.1. In a two-part model, logistic regression was used to explain the incurrence of drug expenditure at the first stage and a linear mixed model that considered the multilevel structure of data modeled the cost, conditional upon incurring any expense. Risk and efficiency indexes in pharmacy cost adjusted for ACG were obtained for centers and physicians. Spearman rank correlation between physician expenditure, adjusted for ACG, and a prescription quality index was also obtained. Pediatric and adult data were analyzed separately.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>No prescription was recorded for 13% of adults and 39.6% of children. The proportion of variance of the incurrence of expenditure explained by ACGs was 0.29 in adults and 0.21 in children. For adults with prescriptions, the variance of cost explained by ACGs was 35.4%, by physician-center was 1.8% and age 10.5% (residual 52.3%). For children, ACGs explained 22.4% of cost and physician-center 10.9% (residual 66.7%). Center efficiency index for adults ranged 0.58 to 1.22 and for children 0.32 to 2.36.</p> <p>Spearman correlation between expenditure and prescription quality index was -0.36 in family physicians (p = 0.019, N = 41) and -0.52 in pediatricians (p = 0.08, N = 12).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In our setting, ACG is the variable studied that explains more variability in pharmacy cost in adults compared to physician and center. In children there is greater variability among physicians and centers not related to case-mix. In our sites, ACG is useful to profile physicians and centers using electronic records in real practical conditions. Physicians with lower pharmaceutical expenditure have higher scores for a prescription quality index.</p

Partitioning of copy-number genotypes in pedigrees

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Copy number variations (CNVs) and polymorphisms (CNPs) have only recently gained the genetic community's attention. Conservative estimates have shown that CNVs and CNPs might affect more than 10% of the genome and that they may be at least as important as single nucleotide polymorphisms in assessing human variability. Widely used tools for CNP analysis have been implemented in <it>Birdsuite </it>and <it>PLINK </it>for the purpose of conducting genetic association studies based on the unpartitioned total number of CNP copies provided by the intensities from Affymetrix's Genome-Wide Human SNP Array. Here, we are interested in partitioning copy number variations and polymorphisms in extended pedigrees for the purpose of linkage analysis on familial data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We have developed <it>CNGen</it>, a new software for the partitioning of copy number polymorphism using the integrated genotypes from <it>Birdsuite </it>with the Affymetrix platform. The algorithm applied to familial trios or extended pedigrees can produce partitioned copy number genotypes with distinct parental alleles. We have validated the algorithm using simulations on a complex pedigree structure using frequencies calculated from a real dataset of 300 genotyped samples from 42 pedigrees segregating a congenital heart defect phenotype.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>CNGen </it>is the first published software for the partitioning of copy number genotypes in pedigrees, making possible the use CNPs and CNVs for linkage analysis. It was implemented with the <it>Python </it>interpreter version 2.5.2. It was successfully tested on current Linux, Windows and Mac OS workstations.</p

A prognostic tool to identify adolescents at high risk of becoming daily smokers

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The American Academy of Pediatrics advocates that pediatricians should be involved in tobacco counseling and has developed guidelines for counseling. We present a prognostic tool for use by health care practitioners in both clinical and non-clinical settings, to identify adolescents at risk of becoming daily smokers.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were drawn from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens (NDIT) Study, a prospective investigation of 1293 adolescents, initially aged 12-13 years, recruited in 10 secondary schools in Montreal, Canada in 1999. Questionnaires were administered every three months for five years. The prognostic tool was developed using estimated coefficients from multivariable logistic models. Model overfitting was corrected using bootstrap cross-validation. Goodness-of-fit and predictive ability of the models were assessed by R², the c-statistic, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The 1-year and 2-year probability of initiating daily smoking was a joint function of seven individual characteristics: age; ever smoked; ever felt like you needed a cigarette; parent(s) smoke; sibling(s) smoke; friend(s) smoke; and ever drank alcohol. The models were characterized by reasonably good fit and predictive ability. They were transformed into user-friendly tables such that the risk of daily smoking can be easily computed by summing points for responses to each item. The prognostic tool is also available on-line at <url>http://episerve.chumontreal.qc.ca/calculation_risk/daily-risk/daily_smokingadd.php</url>.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The prognostic tool to identify youth at high risk of daily smoking may eventually be an important component of a comprehensive tobacco control system.</p

Low tuberculosis notification in mountainous Vietnam is not due to low case detection: a cross-sectional survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies show that tuberculosis notification declines with increasing altitude. This can be due to declining incidence or declining case detection. In Vietnam notification rates of new smear-positive tuberculosis in the central mountainous provinces (26/100,000 population) are considerably lower than in Vietnam in general (69/100,000 population). In order to clarify whether this is explained by low incidence or low case detection, we aimed to assess the prevalence of new smear-positive tuberculosis among adults with prolonged cough in three mountainous provinces in central Vietnam.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A house-to-house survey of persons (≥ 15 years) was carried out in twelve randomly selected districts in 2003. Three sputum specimens were microscopically examined of persons reporting a prolonged cough (≥ 3 weeks). Case detection was assessed by the ratio between notification and prevalence.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 68,946 included persons (95% response), 1,298 (1.9% 95%CI 1.8–2.2) reported a prolonged cough. Of these, eighteen were sputum smear-positive of whom two had had anti-tuberculosis treatment. The prevalence of new smear-positive tuberculosis was 27/100,000 (95%CI 11–44/100,000) and the notification rate was 44/100,000 among persons ≥ 15 years. The estimated case detection rate was 76%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Low tuberculosis notification in this mountainous setting is probably a true reflection of low tuberculosis incidence. Possible causes for low incidence in mountainous areas include low transmission rates or altitude-related differences in pathology.</p

Social Influence in Televised Election Debates: A Potential Distortion of Democracy

A recent innovation in televised election debates is a continuous response measure (commonly referred to as the “worm”) that allows viewers to track the response of a sample of undecided voters in real-time. A potential danger of presenting such data is that it may prevent people from making independent evaluations. We report an experiment with 150 participants in which we manipulated the worm and superimposed it on a live broadcast of a UK election debate. The majority of viewers were unaware that the worm had been manipulated, and yet we were able to influence their perception of who won the debate, their choice of preferred prime minister, and their voting intentions. We argue that there is an urgent need to reconsider the simultaneous broadcast of average response data with televised election debates

Male Use of Female Sex Work in India: A Nationally Representative Behavioural Survey

Heterosexual transmission of HIV in India is driven by the male use of female sex workers (FSW), but few studies have examined the factors associated with using FSW. This nationally representative study examined the prevalence and correlates of FSW use among 31,040 men aged 15–49 years in India in 2006. Nationally, about 4% of men used FSW in the previous year, representing about 8.5 million FSW clients. Unmarried men were far more likely than married men to use FSW overall (PR = 8.0), but less likely than married men to use FSW among those reporting at least one non-regular partner (PR = 0.8). More than half of all FSW clients were married. FSW use was higher among men in the high-HIV states than in the low-HIV states (PR = 2.7), and half of all FSW clients lived in the high-HIV states. The risk of FSW use rose sharply with increasing number of non-regular partners in the past year. Given the large number of men using FSW, interventions for the much smaller number of FSW remains the most efficient strategy for curbing heterosexual HIV transmission in India

Extended LTA, TNF, LST1 and HLA Gene Haplotypes and Their Association with Rubella Vaccine-Induced Immunity

Recent studies have suggested the importance of HLA genes in determining immune responses following rubella vaccine. The telomeric class III region of the HLA complex harbors several genes, including lymphotoxin alpha (LTA), tumor necrosis factor (TNF) and leukocyte specific transcript -1 (LST1) genes, located between the class I B and class II DRB1 loci. Apart from HLA, little is known about the effect of this extended genetic region on HLA haplotypic backgrounds as applied to immune responses.We examined the association between immune responses and extended class I-class II-class III haplotypes among 714 healthy children after two doses of rubella vaccination. These extended haplotypes were then compared to the HLA-only haplotypes. The most significant association was observed between haplotypes extending across the HLA class I region, ten-SNP haplotypes, and the HLA class II region (i.e. A-C-B-LTA-TNF-LST1-DRB1-DQA1-DQB1-DPA1-DPB1) and rubella-specific antibodies (global p-value of 0.03). Associations were found between both extended A*02-C*03-B*15-AAAACGGGGC-DRB1*04-DQA1*03-DQB1*03-DPA1*01-DPB1*04 (p = 0.002) and HLA-only A*02-C*03-B*15-DRB1*04-DQA1*03-DQB1*03-DPA1*01-DPB1*04 haplotypes (p = 0.009) and higher levels of rubella antibodies. The class II HLA-only haplotype DRB1*13-DQA1*01-DQB1*06-DPA1*01-DPB1*04 (p = 0.04) lacking LTA-TNF-LST1 SNPs was associated with lower rubella antibody responses. Similarly, the class I-class II HLA-only A*01-C*07-B*08-DRB1*03-DQA1*05-DQB1*02-DPA1*01-DPB1*04 haplotype was associated with increased TNF-alpha secretion levels (p = 0.009). In contrast, the extended AAAACGGGGC-DRB1*01-DQA1*01-DQB1*05-DPA1*01-DPB1*04 (p = 0.01) haplotype was found to trend with decreased rubella-specific IL-6 secretion levels.These data suggest the importance of examining both HLA genes and genes in the class III region as part of the extended haplotypes useful in understanding genomic drivers regulating immune responses to rubella vaccine

Small-scale, homelike facilities versus regular psychogeriatric nursing home wards: a cross-sectional study into residents' characteristics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Nursing home care for people with dementia is increasingly organized in small-scale and homelike care settings, in which normal daily life is emphasized. Despite this increase, relatively little is known about residents' characteristics and whether these differ from residents in traditional nursing homes. This study explored and compared characteristics of residents with dementia living in small-scale, homelike facilities and regular psychogeriatric wards in nursing homes, focusing on functional status and cognition.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted, including 769 residents with dementia requiring an intensive level of nursing home care: 586 from regular psychogeriatric wards and 183 residents from small-scale living facilities. Functional status and cognition were assessed using two subscales from the Resident Assessment Instrument Minimum Data Set (RAI-MDS): the Activities of Daily Living-Hierarchy scale (ADL-H) and the Cognitive Performance Scale (CPS). In addition, care dependency was measured using Dutch Care Severity Packages (DCSP). Finally, gender, age, living condition prior to admission and length of stay were recorded. Descriptive analyses, including independent samples t- tests and chi-square tests, were used. To analyze data in more detail, multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Residents living in small-scale, homelike facilities had a significantly higher functional status and cognitive performance compared with residents in regular psychogeriatric wards. In addition, they had a shorter length of stay, were less frequently admitted from home and were more often female than residents in regular wards. No differences were found in age and care dependency. While controlling for demographic variables, the association between dementia care setting and functional status and cognition remained.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Although residents require a similar intensive level of nursing home care, their characteristics differ among small-scale living facilities and regular psychogeriatric wards. These differences may limit research into effects and feasibility of various types of dementia care settings. Therefore, these studies should take resident characteristics into account in their design, for example by using a matching procedure.</p